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April 26, 2015

TK’s Special Briefing…. (245pm CT-Sun/26Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 26, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
245pm CT – Sunday / 26 April 2015

…. “Enhanced” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Tonight for IH35 Corridor Counties ….


Risks:
Large hail 1″ in diameter or larger…
Straight line thunderstorm winds 58 mph or higher…
Isolated tornadoes..
Along with frequent deadly cloud-to-ground lightning.

I will not go into much detail here since I’ve been discussing this event since last week.
As predicted, rich maritime tropical moisture has returned to the area in combination with
strong daytime heating (in  the wake of the morning thunderstorms).  As seen below, a strong
upper level  low pressure disturbance is barreling eastward into west Texas. As this system
crosses the area tonight into the predawn hours on Monday, dynamic abundant atmospheric
lift will develop in a very unstable atmosphere with a mid and upper level wind field that will
be supportive for long lived supercell thunderstorms.. with large hail, damaging winds and
even a few tornadoes along with the ever present lightning threat.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/gifs/WV500MB.GIF

Please note that areas a little north of our area are in a “moderate” risk area which is
a more dangerous situation… Waco northward to the DFW metroplex.

The threat of severe thunderstorms will pass by the early morning hours tomorrow with
another warmer than average day in store. In the wake of the upper level storm system, a
strong cold front will surge through the area late tomorrow into tomorrow night with clearing
skies and highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Please note that you are responsible for remaining “weather aware” tonight and listen for
the latest information from the National Weather Service…
NWS/Austin-San Antonio website:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/

I’m monitoring… tk