Daily Archives
April 25, 2015

TK’s Special Briefing…. (1100pm CT-Fri/24Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 25, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #9
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1100pm CT – Friday / 24 April 2015

….  Severe Thunderstorm Risk Decreasing Rapidly ….

At 1100pm, I believe that the risk of severe thunderstorms is decreasing
and, in fact, as pointed out earlier, I am wondering if we’ll see much in the
way of precipitation for the IH35 corridor counties for the overnight hours.

Latest data suggests that increasing convective inhibition is developing with
the cooling of the evening. The latest high resolution model guidance is
suggesting, as it has for a few hours now, that while a few rain showers and
thunderstorms could develop between now and daybreak Saturday, most of
the activity will be well east of the IH 35 corridor.

Remember that the threat of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will be
present with any thunderstorms that do develop.

I will continue to monitor, but, based on the latest data and unless something
unexpected happens, this will be my last statement on this weather event.

…. REMINDER ….
…. Another Severe Thunderstorm Threat Late Sunday into Monday ….

A strong low pressure area and cold front will pass over the area around the time of
the Monday morning rush hour. Moisture will increase again Sunday ahead of this
system. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center, accordingly, has our area in a “slight”
severe thunderstorm risk area Sunday night into early Monday. Drier and much
cooler will filter into the area in the wake of the system Monday mid morning into
Tuesday.

tk

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast SPECIAL…. (830pm CT-Fri/24Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 25, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Special Briefing…. (800pm CT-Fri/14Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 25, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #8
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
800pm CT – Friday / 24 April 2015

…. “Slight” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Continues Through About
1 to 2 am Saturday Morning ….

No current NWS watches/advisories/warnings for our IH35 corridor.

At 800pm on this Friday night, a scattered to broken band of rain showers
and thunderstorms is distant north through northwest and west of our local
area and extends southwestward from the east parts of the DFW metroplex
to Hillsboro to Hamilton to south of Brady and northwest of Mason. The line
is moving east southeastward.

In addition, to our distant southwest, some stronger thunderstorms are
located from Camp Wood and Uvalde south to north of Laredo. The area is
moving northeastward although one of the most severe thunderstorm cells..
currently near Crystal City.. has taken a right turn and has started moving
more southeastward.

So the question is… will we see any of this activity in the Austin metro area
and the IH35 corridor later tonight? Current high resolution models suggest
that we could see the line.. to our northwest..  pass off just to the north of the
area and the thunderstorms to our southwest move off just to our south
resulting in little precipitation (or severe weather) in our immediate area.
I think it’s too early to say that is going to happen but it sure would not surprise
me. One thing for sure, though, it that any threat of rain and and severe weather
will end by 1 to 2am tomorrow morning at the latest as the upper air support
provided by the upper air system passes off to our north and as drier and more
stable surface air spreads in from the west.

The latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance suggests that we’ll see, at the most,
upwards of 1/2 to 1 inch of additional rainfall between now and 6am Saturday.

Remember, too, the risk of dangerous/deadly cloud-to-ground lightning with
any thunderstorm activity.

I’ll continue to monitor.. and will keep you informed. I will issue a final update
later tonight when the precipitation chances and this risk of severe weather ends.

…. Another Severe Thunderstorm Threat Late Sunday into Monday ….

A strong low pressure area and cold front will pass over the area around the time of
the Monday morning rush hour. Moisture will increase again Sunday ahead of this
system. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center, accordingly, has our area in a “slight”
severe thunderstorm risk area Sunday night into early Monday. Drier and much
cooler will filter into the area in the wake of the system Monday mid morning into
Tuesday.

tk