Daily Archives
April 24, 2015

TK’s Special Briefing…. (120pm CT-Fri/24Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 24, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #7
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
120pm CT – Friday / 24 April 2015

…. “Slight” Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Continues Through Tonight ….



Rain showers and thunderstorms.. according to the latest high resolution guidance..
will develop to our west during the course of the remainder of the afternoon.
The thunderstorms.. likely to develop in a broad north to south line.. will sweep
through the  IH35 corridor in the evening to nighttime hours with severe thunderstorms
possible. At this time, the highest risk is for larger hail and damaging straight line
thunderstorm wind. The threat of tornadoes is lower.

Rainfall.. on average across the area.. will be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range with it being
beneficial in most areas. However, earlier today in counties south and east of the Austin
area and the IH35 corridor, some rainfall totals of 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 inches were observed.
In these areas, the additional rainfall later today into tonight will likely cause some
flooding issues.

Current guidance suggest that precipitation should end across the IH35 corridor by
1 to 2 am tomorrow morning with much drier westerly surface winds taking over the
area tomorrow with afternoon high temperatures approaching 90 degrees.

…. Another Severe Thunderstorm Threat Late Sunday into Monday ….

A strong low pressure area and cold front will pass over the area around the time of
the Monday morning rush hour. Moisture will increase again Sunday ahead of this
system. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center, accordingly, has our area in a “slight”
severe thunderstorm risk area Sunday night into early Monday. Drier and much
cooler will filter into the area in the wake of the system Monday mid morning into
Tuesday.

I’m continuing to monitor..
tk

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 24, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 24 April 2015

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms possibly severe with hail 1″ in diameter or larger along with thunderstorm winds 58 mph or higher. Frequent dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany thunderstorms. A 50% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 83. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 7am.. then becoming mostly sunny and less humid. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 89. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 88. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northerly 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy and not quite as warm with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 9am. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 77. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 58. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 75. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Light northeast wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 76. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 01 May 2015 through Thursday / 07 May 2015…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (24 April)…………………………………………. 6:54 am
Sunset this evening (24 April)…………………………………………… 8:04 pm
Sunrise Saturday (25 April)………………………………………………. 6:53 am
Sunset Saturday (25 April)……………………………………………….. 8:05 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 24, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 24 April 2015

.. One Passing Low Pressure Disturbance with Rain this Morning ..
.. Another Wave of Thunderstorm Later This Afternoon into Tonight ..
.. Drier Air with a Little More Sunshine for the Weekend ..

On this Friday…. a northward moving warm front extends northwestward from east Texas into western Oklahoma and the northeastern Texas panhandle into a surfacelow pressure area over southeastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern and morning thunderstorms, our local surface winds are variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an eastward moving upper level low pressure disturbance is over the southwestern USA into northern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 60 to 70 mph.

After one wave of overnight rain showers and thunderstorms, which produced less than an inch of rain in the Austin area proper, we’re going to see a break in the weather into the afternoon with sunshine and warming temperatures.

BY later this afternoon into tonight, the main trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure, to our west, will move northeastward across our area. As a result of increased upward motion in the atmosphere along with a more moist and unstable air mass will bring us increased thunderstorms chances with the possibility of severe thunderstorms.. potentially producing larger hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. In addition, the latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance now shows the potential of an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of rain between now and early tomorrow.

A drier and more stable air mass return tomorrow into Sunday with more sunshine expected.

Another approaching front along with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance will result in the return of rain and thunderstorm chances to the forecast by Sunday night into Monday. Early indications suggest the possibility of severe thunderstorms again.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Special Briefing…. (835pm CT-Thu/23Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 24, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #6
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
835pm CT – Thursday / 23 April 2015

…. Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Williamson County Canceled ….

As we retire for the evening, everything looks quiet across the area with a few
thunderstorms northwest of Fort Hood in Bell County to our north.

As the NWS/Austin-San Antonio has pointed out tonight, the models have had
a tough time resolving thunderstorm occurrence across the area today.

The latest high resolution (and short terms) models are indicating an upper
air low pressure disturbance.. over northern Mexico.. will traverse the area
overnight into the morning rush hour Friday. As it does, the atmospheric lift
will increase with a moist and fairly unstable air mass in place. Both of the
models that I’m looking at suggests that an area of rain showers and
thunderstorms will develop in the next few hours to our west and
southwest and overspread the area by 2 to 4 am tomorrow morning and
continue through the morning rush hour.

We continue to be in a “marginal” NWS severe weather risk area through
7am tomorrow then a “slight” NWS severe weather risk area 7am tomorrow
into tomorrow night.

I will continue to monitor..
tk