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April 21, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (945am CT-Tue/21Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 21, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 21, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 21 April 2015

TODAY…. Partly cloudy. High 79. Easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 84. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. A 10% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 86. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 28 April 2015 through Monday / 04 May 2015…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21 April)…………………………………………. 6:57 am
Sunset this evening (21 April)…………………………………………… 8:02 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (22 April)………………………………………….. 6:56 am
Sunset Wednesday (22 April)…………………………………………… 8:03 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 21, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 21 April 2015

.. A More Unstable Air Mass Developing ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Return Mid and Late Week ..

On this Tuesday…. a weakening stationary front extends across the western Gulf of Mexico into Mexico south of Brownsville. Surface high pressure is located north of the front over the northern parishes of Louisiana. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light easterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an strong counterclockwise rotating upper air low pressure area is located over Lake Superior. Another strong upper level low pressure disturbance is off the coast of southern California. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 40 to 50 mph.

The drier and cooler air mass.. associated with the surface high over northern Louisiana.. is starting to move east of the area this morning as surface low pressure becomes better developed to our west. By later today into tonight, the front, to our distant southeast, will shift back northward as a warm front.

With the return south southeasterly surface wind later today into tonight and Wednesday, we’ll see low level moisture to begin to return to the area. We’re also seeing a moderate westerly upper level winds are bringing some mid and high level Pacific moisture.. in the form of mid and high clouds.. to our local area.

Another series of weak cold fronts will approach the area from the north by tomorrow through the latter part of the week. Even though I don’t see the fronts making their way this far south through Friday, there will start to be the influence of passing upper air disturbances from the counter clockwise rotating system over the southwestern USA. This resultant increased upward motion in the atmosphere along with a more moist and unstable air mass will bring us increased clouds as well as rain and thunderstorms chances by tomorrow through the latter part of the week.

The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance suggests the possibility of stronger.. potentially severe.. thunderstorms for parts of Texas (including parts of our local area) for tomorrow through Thursday and Friday. In addition, the latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance now shows the potential of 3/4 to 1 1/4 inch of rain between now and Saturday.

A drier and more stable air mass return Saturday into Sunday with more sunshine expected. Another approaching front along with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance will result in the return of rain and thunderstorm chances to the forecast by Sunday night into Monday.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel