Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Day: April 17, 2015

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 915am CT – Friday / 17 April 2015

.. Multi Day Severe Thunderstorm Risk ..
.. Rain Chances Continue into the Weekend ..
.. Several Inches of Rain Possible ..

On this Friday…. a surface cold front extends a surface low over southeastern Colorado into west Texas and then into northern Mexico south of the Texas Big Bend. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an strong counterclockwise rotating upper air low pressure disturbance is centered over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

A moist southerly surface wind flow continues over the area.

After a stormy mid and late afternoon yesterday over the southern and eastern parts of our area, we’ve got the eastward moving surface cold front out west, combined with passing upper air disturbances associated with the counterclockwise rotating strong disturbance out west, to result in additional rain and severe weather chances today into tonight and even tomorrow. This cold front is forecast only to move slowly eastward and extend rain chances well into the weekend. and now not expected through the area until Saturday. The NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests anywhere from 1/2 inch to 2 inch rainfall totals between now and daybreak Sunday. As we saw yesterday.. the biggest weather risk may be for severe thunderstorms with strong thunderstorm wind gusts at or above 58 mph and large hail above 1″ in diameter along with the always present deadly cloud-to-ground lightning risk. The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlook for today into tonight mentions an enhanced threat of severe weather.. including the possibility of a few tornadoes.. to our immediate and distant south toward the Texas coast and dep south Texas.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible again tomorrow into tomorrow night with all of our area in a “slight” to “enhanced” severe thunderstorm risk area.

A drier and more stable weather pattern looks to develop by Sunday into Monday with temperatures near seasonal averages.

Another weak cold front looks to approach the area from the north by late Tuesday into early Wednesday with rain and thunderstorms chances returning to the forecast.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

TK’s Special Briefing…. (745am CT-Fri/17Apr2015)

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Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #6
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
745am CT – Friday / 17 April 2015

Multi Day Severe Weather Risk…
… Severe Thunderstorm Risk Again Today into Tonight …
… Severe Thunderstorm Risk Again Saturday into Saturday Night …

… NWS/Austin-San Antonio Flash Flood Watch for Areas east of the the IH35
Corridor Counties 1pm Today Until 1am Tomorrow Morning … This DOES NOT
include the IH35 corridor counties at this time …

At 730am… I do not see any precipitation on NWS Doppler weather radar anywhere
in the local area / IH35 corridor counties…

The latest short range high resolution computer models suggest a resurgence of rain
showers and thunderstorms.. some possibly severe.. by early to mid afternoon. This
occurs as we start to get daytime heating today and instability increases again in
combination with passing upper air disturbances. These thunderstorms may contain
larger hail in excess of 1″ in diameter and damaging straight line thunderstorm  winds
at or above 58 mph along with frequent deadly cloud-to-ground lightning. There is a
smaller risk of tornadoes mainly south of the Austin area proper. This thunderstorm
risk will continue into the nighttime hours tonight. Upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain with
some isolated higher totals could occur.. mainly in areas along and east of the IH35
corridor counties.

Here is the NWS/Storm Prediction Center Day 1 severe weather outlook (7am today
to 7am Saturday)…


In closing, permit me to talk about the severe thunderstorm risk again tomorrow
into tomorrow night. The outlook area.. from the NWS/Storm Prediction Center..
for 7am Saturday through 7am Sunday is quite similar  to today’s outlook…


In summary, we’re in a midst of a multi day severe thunderstorm risk for
the IH35 corridor counties. All interests are responsible for remaining weather
aware through the next couple of days.. have a way of receiving the latest weather
information and be ready to act in case the NWS issues advisories/watches
and/or warnings for your local area.

Here is a link to the latest NWS/Austin-San Antonio short fused advisories
and warnings in chronological order with the latest issuances at top (check the
the time of the statements.. the latest issuance may have expired and NOT be
current)…
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=10

Always remember that frequent cloud to ground lightning is the BIGGEST and
most common hazard with any thunderstorms.. when they threaten, please stay
indoors and away from electrical appliances and plumbing devices.

I will continuing to monitor…

tk