Daily Archives
April 17, 2015

TK’s Special Briefing…. (625pm CT-Fri/17Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 17, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #11
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
625pm CT – Friday / 17 April 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for IH35 Corridor Counties Continues Until 7pm …

… NWS/Austin-San Antonio Issued Flash Flood Watch for Areas East of the IH35
Corridor Counties Until 1am Saturday Morning … This DOES NOT include the
IH35 corridor counties at this time

Up to 6pm.. rainfall totals, since 12 noon, along the IH35 corridor counties
includes 0.26″ at Austin Bergstrom International Airport and 0.31″ at Austin
City (Camp Mabry). The LCRA Hydromet (http://hydromet.lcra.org/full.aspx),
as of the current time, only shows heaviest totals to 0.33″ in their gauge near Austin
Bergstrom International Airport. The City of Austin website, www.atxfloods.com ,
shows only shows six (6) of the 761 lower water crossings flooded at the current
time.. with all of those outside of the IH35 corridor counties.

On NWS Doppler weather radar, I see rain showers and thunderstorms diminishing
from the southwest into the Austin area proper.. even though additional rain showers
and thunderstorms over southern Burnet, northeastern Blanco , northwestern Hays
and western Travis county may affect western and northern parts of the IH35
corridor within the next hour.

With no severe weather in the area, frequent deadly cloud-to-ground lightning  will
continue to be the biggest hazard over the next hour or so with wet roadways posing
a hazard as well to Friday evening rush hour commuters.

Continuing to monitor.. tk

TK’s Special Briefing….

by troyk | on Apr 17, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #9
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
445pm CT – Friday / 17 April 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for IH35 Corridor Counties Continues Until 7pm …

… NWS/Austin-San Antonio Issued Flash Flood Watch for Areas East of the IH35
Corridor Counties Until 1am Saturday Morning … This DOES NOT include the
IH35 corridor counties at this time

At 445pm… no severe weather is indicated. Rain showers and thunderstorms are
spreading northward into the Austin metro area and the IH35 corridor counties.
Dangerous and deadly cloud-to-ground lightning is accompanying these
thunderstorms along with periods of heavier rain as well as gusty wind.
This will
make what would, under a clear sky, be an otherwise usual Friday afternoon rush
hour traffic headache into something twenty times as bad. Use caution if you must
be on the roadways.

The latest short range high resolution computer models suggest a fairly progressive
movement of these cells through the area over the next few hours. As a result, rainfall
should remain on the beneficial side.. especially where it falls over the Texas hill country
which is still in drought. Although we need to watch this closely, I’m thinking that we’ll
see some one and two inch rainfall totals across the area with heaviest rainfalls in areas
to our south and southeast in the current flash flood watch area.

I’ll continue to monitor.. tk

TK’s Special Briefing…. (1158am CT-Fri/17Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 17, 2015 | Comments Off

1158pm CT – Friday / 17 April 2015

…. Authority / NWS Storm Prediction Center ….
See link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0067.html
WW0067 Radar

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 67
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN-NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING…CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
COTULLA TEXAS TO 90 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

TK’s Special Briefing…. (1040am CT-Fri/17Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 17, 2015 | Comments Off

1040am CT – Friday / 17 April 2015

Please be weather aware today… as mentioned in the link below, the probability
of a severe weather watch for the IH35 corridor west southwestward is about 60% by
early afternoon.

…. Authority NWS/Storm Prediction Center ….

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0334.html

MD 334 graphic

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 17, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 17 April 2015

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe with large hail 1″ in diameter or more.. damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or higher as well as frequent deadly lightning. A 60% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 3/4 to 1 1/4 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms.. mainly before 10pm.. may be severe with large hail 1″ in diameter or more.. damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or higher as well as frequent deadly lightning. A 50% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 68. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming gusty and variable around any thunderstorms.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe with large hail 1″ in diameter or more.. damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or higher as well as frequent deadly lightning. A 50% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 77. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more variable in the afternoon as a weak cold front moves into the area and weakens.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 40% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 67. Light wind becoming more south southeasterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy as a cold front passes by late afternoon. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly by late afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 59. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 78. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 67. Light northeasterly wind becoming more easterly after midnight.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. High 81. Easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location.. where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 24 April 2015 through Thursday / 30 April 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 April)…………………………………………. 7:01 am
Sunset this evening (17 April)…………………………………………… 8:00 pm
Sunrise Saturday (18 April)………………………………………………. 7:00 am
Sunset Saturday (18 April)……………………………………………….. 8:01 pm