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April 13, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (945am CT – Mon/13Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 13, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 13, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 13 April 2015

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 81. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy and a little cooler with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62. Southwesterly wind shifting northerly 5 to 12 mph as the cold front passes.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 78. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 60. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. East northeasterly wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph by midday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 79. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly as a cold front passes in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 64. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 78. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Light northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 81. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.. most likely after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes during the afternoon into evening hours. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 79. South southeasterly wind shifting northerly 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 20 April 2015 through Sunday / 26 April 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 April)…………………………………………. 7:06 am
Sunset this evening (13 April)…………………………………………… 7:57 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (14 April)………………………………………………. 7:05 am
Sunset Tuesday (14 April)……………………………………………….. 7:58 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 13, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 13 April 2015

.. Weekend Rains Didn’t Materialize ..
.. Rain Chances Still Linger Through Much of the Upcoming Week ..
.. Several Cold Frontal Passages Expected this Week ..

On this Monday…. a cold front extends southwestward from central Illinois into northern Arkansas southwestward into north central Texas then westward into far west Texas around El Paso and then westward. Surface high pressure is off the southeastern seaboard of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper air disturbance is centered over southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 40 to 50 mph.

After another weekend with high rainfall probabilities and the promise of a wash out, once again there was little in the way of rain in the Austin area. This morning’s upper air disturbance.. associated with the main upper air low out west and rotating eastward across the area.. had only a quick shot of precipitation with most rainfall amounts across Travis county less than 1/10th of an inch.

The cold front, to our northwest, will track southeastward across our area late this afternoon into tonight with minimal rain and thunderstorm chances. We’ll see slightly cooler temperatures with the wind shift, however, I’ll maintain some clouds and slim rain chances tonight into tomorrow as the front moves to our southeast and weakens quickly before returning back northward as a warm front by Wednesday.

Warm, moist southerly flow will increase across the area by Wednesday into Thursday with another cold front with slightly better rain chances later Thursday into Thursday night and early Friday.

A slightly drier and a little cooler air mass will spread into the area Friday into Saturday.

Another cold front appears to move across the area by late next Sunday. The initial look at the data suggests only slim.. if any.. rain chances with the front.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through mid week with precipitation timing and amounts being the main issue. My forecast confidence falls back to medium, regarding frontal passage times, precipitation probabilities and amounts, Thursday into Friday. My forecast confidence rises back to high for Friday through next weekend.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel