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April 9, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (945am CT-Thu/09Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 09, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 09, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 09 April 2015

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 73. Southerly wind shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph as a cold front moves through the area.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 62. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 77. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 66. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 81. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly as a cold front passes early in the morning.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 62. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. High 80. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east southeasterly by late afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 66. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 16 April 2015 through Wednesday / 22 April 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (09 April)…………………………………………. 7:10 am
Sunset this evening (09 April)…………………………………………… 7:55 pm
Sunrise Friday (10 April)………………………………………………….. 7:09 am
Sunset Friday (10 April)…………………………………………………… 7:56 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 09, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 09 April 2015

.. Rain Chances Head Up Through the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front Due on Monday ..
.. Additional Rain Chances Mid and Late Next Week ..

On this Thursday…. a low pressure area is over the Oklahoma/Kansas border with a stationary front extending westward from northern Missouri and eastern Kansas through the low and northwestward into Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from the low through west Texas. Surface high pressure is off the southeastern seaboard of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough.. or line.. of developing upper level low pressure is situated from the Colorado/Kansas border southward into west Texas. Another low pressure disturbance is located off the west coast of California and Baja Peninsula. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 30 to 40 mph.

A southerly surface wind flow continues across the area.

With the passing upper air low pressure disturbance.. to our distant northwest.. is combining with a southeastward moving weakening cold front and increasing low level moisture and atmospheric instability to give us better rain and thunderstorm chances beginning today and continuing over the next several days. The highest chances rain chances are tomorrow and again late in the weekend. According to the NWS Storm Prediction Center, there is a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms with a hail/strong thunderstorm wind risk locally late Friday into Friday night. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance continues to suggest upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain from this weather system late week through the weekend.

Another cold front and passing upper air disturbance is due Sunday into early Monday which will keep precipitation chances into the new week.

At the end of the seven day forecast period and beyond.. another weather system, with better rain chances, will move into our area for the middle and latter part of next week.

Overall.. it looks wet locally over the next seven days with rain chances over much of the forecast period.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through tomorrow and Friday and the weekend with frontal timing, precipitation timing and amounts as well as the any severe thunderstorm risk being issues. My forecast confidence is high for the early part of next week with my confidence falling back to low to medium for the middle and latter part of next week as it regards precipitation probabilities and amounts being the issues.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel