Daily Archives
April 7, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (955am CT-Tues/07Apr2015)

by troyk | on Apr 07, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 07, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 07 April 2015

TODAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 68. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds and patchy fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 85. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 69. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 79. Southerly wind shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph as a cold front moves through the area.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 65. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 80. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 66. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 81. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly as a cold front passes early in the morning.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 14 April 2015 through Monday / 20 April 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (07 April)…………………………………………. 7:13 am
Sunset this evening (07 April)…………………………………………… 7:54 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (08 April)………………………………………….. 7:12 am
Sunset Wednesday (08 April)…………………………………………… 7:54 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 07, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 07 April 2015

.. Much Warmer Temperatures ..
.. Weak Cold Front Due Friday ..
.. Better Rain Chances Thursday into Friday and Continuing Through the Weekend ..
.. Another Cold Front Due on Monday ..

On this Tuesday…. a low pressure area is over central Kansas with a stationary front extending westward from Missouri through the low and into Colorado. A trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from the Kansas low through west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Surface high pressure is off the eastern seaboard of the USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a mostly zonal (west-to-east) upper air wind flow exists over the USA with a north to south oriented trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure along the northern California coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 20 to 30 mph.

Warmer.. more humid southerly surface wind flow continues across the area.

An approaching upper air low pressure disturbance combined with a southeastward moving weakening cold front and increasing low level moisture and atmospheric instability to give us better rain and thunderstorm chances as early as tomorrow night with the best chances Thursday and Friday through the weekend. There appears, according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center, to be at least a slim risk of severe thunderstorms with a hail/strong thunderstorm wind risk locally on Thursday again on Saturday. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance suggests upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain from this weather system late week through the weekend.

Another cold front is due early Monday which will keep precipitation chances early into the new week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today through tomorrow. My confidence falls back to medium late tomorrow night through Thursday and Friday and the weekend with frontal timing, precipitation timing and amounts as well as the severe thunderstorm risk being issues. My forecast confidence is medium to high for the early part of next week with frontal timing, precipitation probabilities and amounts being the issues.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel