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April 3, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (930am CT – Fri / 03 April 2015)

by troyk | on Apr 03, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Apr 03, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 03 April 2015

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. Stronger thunderstorms possible with hail and strong winds being the main threats. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 83. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly as a cold front passes in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 54. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy and much cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 65. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 54. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 71. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 58. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 62. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 80. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches in the afternoon. Strong thunderstorms possible with hail and strong gusty winds are possible. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 79. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 10 April 2015 through Thursday / 16 April 2015…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (03 April)…………………………………………. 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (03 April)…………………………………………… 7:51 pm
Sunrise Saturday (04 April)………………………………………………. 7:16 am
Sunset Saturday (04 April)……………………………………………….. 7:52 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Apr 03, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 03 April 2015

.. Cold Front Moves Through Later Today ..
.. Moisture Overruns Cooler Surface Air with Clouds / Rain Chances for Weekend ..
.. Clouds Break along with Warmer Temperatures for Early Next Week ..
.. Another Cold Front Due Late Next Thursday ..

On this Friday…. surface high pressure is off the eastern seaboard of the USA with a southeasterly moving cold front extending from southern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas into a low pressure area over central and eastern Oklahoma then southwestward into north central Texas and far west Texas around El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a mostly zonal (west-to-east) upper air wind flow exists over the USA with an embedded weak trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is situated from the northern plains into the southern Rockies. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.

A stronger cold front will cross the area by this afternoon with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing along and just ahead of the advancing frontal boundary. The NWS Storm Prediction Center continues a “marginal” risk of severe thunderstorms for the afternoon hours locally as the front moves through with larger hail and strong straightline thunderstorm wind being possible around the strongest thunderstorms. The latest NWS national rainfall guidance suggests upwards of 1/4 inches of rain from this quickly passing weather system.

Once the cooler surface based air moves in, an overrunning weather pattern, where moisture runs back over the top of the cooler surface air, will produce clouds and rain chances tonight through Saturday into Sunday. Daytime high temperatures will remain in the 60s to near 70 for the weekend.

Temperatures will warm with clouds breaking for the early into middle part of next week with another cold front is due by late next Thursday with another chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Early guidance suggests that this front could trigger severe thunderstorms over the southern plains states.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today and tonight and through the weekend with the possibility of stronger thunderstorms today as well as rainfall timing and amounts today through the weekend being the main uncertainties. My confidence goes back to high to very high next Monday through Wednesday night before falling back to medium confidence for next Thursday as it regards frontal timing, frontal rainfall timing and amounts as well as any associated severe weather threat being the issues.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel