Daily Archives
March 31, 2015

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Mar 31, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 31 March 2015

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 79. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Decreasing clouds with a few sprinkles before 9pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 61. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny and warmer. High 84. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 63. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly as a cold front passes midday into early afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 56. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and much cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 69. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 54. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 68. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 58. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 71. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 07 Apr 2015 through Monday / 13 April 2015…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (31 March)…………………………………………. 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (31 March)………………………………………….. 7:49 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (1 April)……………………………………………… 7:20 am
Sunset Wednesday (1 April)………………………………………………. 7:50 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Mar 31, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 31 March 2015

.. Upper Level Low Pressure Disturbance Moves Overhead Tonight into Tomorrow ..
.. Better Rain and Thunderstorm Chances ..
.. A Cold Front Moves Through Friday with an Overrunning Pattern for the Weekend ..

On this Tuesday…. a northward moving weakening warm front extends from a low pressure area over northwestern Oklahoma east southeastward through central Arkansas then into eastern Mississippi and Alabama. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure is situated off of the east coast of the USA. A strong upper air low pressure disturbance is located over the central part of the Baja Peninsula over the Pacific Ocean. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly at 15 to 25 mph.

We’re seeing increased clouds and even a few sprinkles or rain showers possible today but the better chance of thunderstorms comes tonight through tomorrow as the upper air low pressure area over the Baja Peninsula moves eastward through northern Mexico and Texas as it weakens. Latest NWS Storm Prediction Center guidance suggests a few strong thunderstorms are possible in areas well west of the IH35 corridor by later today into tonight.

This mid week round of rain showers and thunderstorms will produce upwards of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain. Rain chances will decrease by tomorrow night with a mostly sunny sky and warmer temperatures returning Thursday.

A stronger cold front will cross the area on Friday by midday into early afternoon with relatively slim rain chances Friday.. Friday night and into and through our upcoming weekend as a Cooler than average and wet overrunning weather pattern becomes established across our area.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high over the next few days with precipitation timing and amounts being a little uncertain right now. My confidence goes back to very high on Thursday before falling back to medium to high for Friday and through next weekend with the associated cold front and forecast overrunning pattern.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel