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March 19, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast (1030am CT-Thu/19Mar2015)

by troyk | on Mar 19, 2015 | Comments Off

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…. NWS Issued Flash Flood Watch Effective at 4pm Friday ….

by troyk | on Mar 19, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1025am CT – Thursday / 19 March 2015


.. Another Strong Upper Level Low Pressure Storm Systems on the Way ..
.. Two to Four Inches or More of Rainfall Possible Friday through Saturday ..
.. NWS Austin-San Antonio Issues Flash Flood Watch For All of the Local Area
   Effective 4pm Friday through 7pm Saturday ..

On this Thursday morning…. a weak stationary front is just north of our area and extends
from central Louisiana west northwestward through central and north central Texas then
into west Texas and central New Mexico.  In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong
upper level low pressure disturbance is located over southwestern Arizona and the northern
part of the Baja Peninsula.

The strong upper level disturbance.. to our distant west.. will be approaching the area by later
this afternoon into tonight with abundant atmospheric moisture in place across the area. The
approaching upper level storm will combine with the weakening stationary front just to our
north to result in renewed rain and thunderstorm chances beginning by daybreak tomorrow.

Once the rain begins it will continue across the area through tomorrow night through Saturday
before slowly decreasing Saturday night. Given some atmospheric instability, there will be some
embedded thunderstorms as the system passes. Forecast precipitation amounts.. in both the
manual NWS guidance as well as the atmospheric model output.. have increased with upwards
of 2 to 4 inches of rain possible tomorrow through Saturday and Saturday night. As noted below,
the NWS Weather Prediction Center in Washington has all of our area in a “slight” risk area for
exceeding flash flood values 7am tomorrow through 7am Sunday.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98ewbg.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99ewbg.gif

NWS Austin-San Antonio meteorologists.. who have already issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH
effective at 4pm tomorrow for all of our area..  they are suggesting that some isolated spots may
see as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain. Local interests throughout south central Texas.. especially with
numerous events going on around the area.. are strongly encouraged to monitor the latest information
regarding this potential heavy rain/flood event for tomorrow into the upcoming weekend.

As the upper level low pressure area moves more overhead tomorrow, the front to the north will
turn back into a cold front and surge southeastward across the area resulting in cooler temperatures
beginning tomorrow into the weekend.

After rain chances decrease Saturday night into early Sunday, clouds will break a bit Sunday into
Monday.

I will continue to monitor this situation.
tk

--

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Mar 19, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 19 March 2015

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and turning cooler as a cold front passes by midday. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms likely. Periods of heavier rain possible. Rainfall, given an 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 69. Southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, given a 100% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1 to 2 inches or more. Low 55. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 90% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1 to 2 inches or more. High 65. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 53. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. A few sprinkles early.. otherwise partly cloudy. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 69. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 52. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. Light south southeasterly wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 73. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 49. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with a cold front passing by daybreak. High 69. Winds becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 26 March 2015 through Wednesday / 1 April 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 March)…………………………………………. 7:36 am
Sunset this evening (19 March)…………………………………………… 7:42 pm
Sunrise Friday (20 March)………………………………………………….. 7:34 am
Sunset Friday (20 March)…………………………………………………… 7:43 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Mar 19, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 19 March 2015

.. Another Strong Upper Level Low Pressure Storm Systems on the Way ..
.. Second Weather System Passes Late Tomorrow into Saturday ..
.. Two to Four Inches or More of Rainfall Possible Friday through Saturday ..

On this Thursday morning…. a weak stationary front is just north of our area and extends from central Louisiana west northwestward through central and north central Texas then into west Texas and central New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is located over southwestern Arizona and the northern part of the Baja Peninsula. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly at 35 to 45 mph.

The strong upper level disturbance.. to our distant west.. will be approaching the area by later this afternoon into tonight with abundant atmospheric moisture in place across the area. The approaching upper level storm will combine with the weakening stationary front just to our north to result in renewed rain and thunderstorm chances beginning by daybreak tomorrow.

Once the rain begins it will continue across the area through tomorrow night through Saturday before slowly decreasing Saturday night. Given some atmospheric instability, there will be some embedded thunderstorms as the system passes. Forecast precipitation amounts.. in both the manual NWS guidance as well as the atmospheric model output.. have increased with upwards of 2 to 4 inches of rain possible tomorrow through Saturday and Saturday night. NWS Austin-San Antonio meteorologists are suggesting that some isolated spots may see as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain. They have already issued a Flash Flood Watch (it doesn’t go into effect until 4pm tomorrow). Local interests throughout south central Texas.. especially with numerous events going on around the area.. are strongly encouraged to monitor the latest information regarding this potential heavy rain/flood event for tomorrow into the upcoming weekend.

As the upper level low pressure area moves more overhead tomorrow, the front to the north will turn back into a cold front and surge southeastward across the area resulting in cooler temperatures beginning tomorrow into the weekend.

After rain chances decrease Saturday night into early Sunday, clouds will break a bit Sunday into Monday.

Another relatively strong cold front will move southeastward through the area by daybreak next Wednesday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through the week and into the weekend. The main questions will be the precipitation timing and amounts as well as flash flood potential.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel