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March 13, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (930am CT-Fri/13Mar2015)

by troyk | on Mar 13, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin/South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Mar 13, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 13 March 2015

TODAY…. Patchy morning fog and low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 75. North northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 52. Light north northwesterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 72. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 51. Light northerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 71. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 48. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 73. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 1/10th inch. High 72. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 55. Light easterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 inch. High 69. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 57. Light easterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 71. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 20 March 2015 through Thursday / 26 March 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 March)…………………………………………. 7:43 am
Sunset this evening (13 March)…………………………………………… 7:38 pm
Sunrise Saturday (14 March)………………………………………………. 7:42 am
Sunset Saturday (14 March)……………………………………………….. 7:39 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Mar 13, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 13 March 2015

.. Clouds and Some Morning Fog Linger ..
.. A Somewhat More Stable Air Mass with More Sun and Warmer Temperatures ..
.. Rain Chances and Amounts Increase for Next Week ..

On this Friday morning…. a low pressure area is over east Texas and western Louisiana with a weakening stationary front extends northeastward into the Ohio Valley region and a cold front extending southward through southern Louisiana into the central Gulf of Mexico. High pressure is located from the intermountain west and the Great Salt Lake southeastward into Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are north northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a developing trough over the central USA extends southward from the northern plains and upper Mississippi Valley south southwestward into Texas and northern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are variable southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph.

With the pesky upper level low pressure disturbance still holding through Texas and Mexico, we’ve seen again overnight a few light rain showers east of the IH35 corridor as well as some fog and low clouds lingering back over our area. Clouds are breaking at mid morning with partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures expected in the coming few days.. in other words, through the weekend.

That being said, however, I’m growing weary with the fact that this upper level low is hanging back over Texas more than I expected, and, as a result, I will introduce morning fog (given the cooling of the morning along with the fairly damp ground) over the next few days and would not be surprised at all if a few sprinkles develop over the weekend.

Beyond the weekend, this upper air disturbance will combine with a southward moving cold front to contribute to increased clouds and another increasing chance of rain and thunderstorms by the middle part of next week. Latest manual and computer guidance is really going up on the rain chances and although the latest NWS forecast rainfall amounts locally are showing around 1/2 inch, I would be surprised if those amounts increased as we advance in the forecast.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through the weekend and into Monday with my forecast confidence falling back to medium for the middle to latter part of next week. In both cases, the questions will be the potential for rain as well as precipitation timing and amounts.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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