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March 3, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast…. (945am CT Tues/03Mar2015)

by troyk | on Mar 03, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Mar 03, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 03 March 2015

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy and much warmer with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms especially in the mid and late afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 70. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms as an arctic cold front passes in the mid and late morning hours. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Turning windy and much colder with highs in the 50s to near 60 in the morning with temperatures falling into the 30s in the afternoon and into the low to mid 30s by the evening rush hour. Southerly wind shifting northerly 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts as the front passes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain becoming mixed with or turning to freezing rain and sleet by mid and late evening and continuing through the overnight hours resulting in potential hazardous driving conditions. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 50% chance of precipitation at any given location, will average less than 1/4 inch. Ice accumulations of 1/10th inch or less. Low 28. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered patches of sleet and snow before 12 noon.. then decreasing clouds in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of precipitation at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Ice accumulations less than 1/10th of an inch. Little or no snow/sleet accumulation. High 36. North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 26. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 43. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 34. Light east northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy and a little warmer. High 48. Light easterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 39. Light wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 55. Light southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 44. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 60. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 10 March 2015 through Monday / 16 March 2015…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (03 March)………………………………………….. 6:55 am
Sunset this evening (03 March)……………………………………………. 6:31 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (04 March)…………………………………………… 6:53 am
Sunset Wednesday (04 March)……………………………………………. 6:32 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Mar 03, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 03 March 2015

… Warmer Temperatures Today and Tonight …
… Another Arctic Cold Front Due Tomorrow …
… Another Round of Wintry Precipitation Wednesday Night into Thursday …

On this Tuesday morning…. a stationary front extends southwestward from south central Louisiana to along the Texas coast then inland into northeastern Mexico. Another developing low pressure storm system is located over Nebraska.. Kansas and Colorado with an advancing arctic cold front from Minnesota south and westward into northern Colorado then northwestward into Idaho. Temperatures behind the front have fallen below zero across eastern Montana. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a deep upper level low pressure area extends southward through California and into a strong upper air disturbance located offshore southwest of San Diego, CA. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 50 to 60 mph.

The center of the chilly surface high pressure area that has been present over the area the last few days is departing our area to the east now as a developing low pressure storm system gets it act together over the central plains states. As it moves eastward, I expect south southeasterly winds to return, on the backside of the clockwise rotating high pressure area, today into tonight and early Wednesday with a slow warming trend expected. Clouds are likely to linger along with a little better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms especially tonight into Wednesday. The best chance of thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk looks to be tonight and Wednesday morning before a strong arctic cold front arrives by mid and late morning.

With the passage of the arctic cold front Wednesday morning into midday, there will be a rapid drop in temperatures with morning temperatures in the 50s to near 60 falling quickly into the 30s in the afternoon and into the 30s by the evening rush hour. An overrunning pattern will persist on top of the advancing shallow layer of arctic air with light precipitation likely Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night with precipitation tapering off a bit during the day Thursday. It is likely, given the latest forecast guidance, that parts of our south central Texas area could see freezing/frozen wintry precipitation Wednesday night into midday Thursday with possible ice accumulations and associated hazardous driving conditions. All local interests should stay in close touch with the latest weather information from the National Weather Service over the coming day or so.

It appears that the overrunning pattern, even with some breaks in the clouds late Thursday into Thursday night and Friday, will linger late week into next weekend as temperatures only slowly warm just as we saw this past weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high today through the remainder of the week and through the upcoming weekend as it regards the basic weather pattern and precipitation occurrence, timing and amounts. I have low to medium confidence of some type of freezing/frozen precipitation late Wednesday through Thursday.

Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

… Winter Weather Possible Wednesday into Thursday …

by troyk | on Mar 03, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
745am CT – Tuesday / 03 March 2015

…. Winter Weather Event Still in the Offing for Wednesday into Thursday ….

NWS WATCHES / ADVISORIES / WARNINGS:
None at this time

SYNOPTIC/FORECAST REASONING:
After a warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s, another arctic cold front will
pass south southeastward through the Austin and south central Texas area during
the late morning hours tomorrow. We will see temperatures tomorrow in the 50s to
near 60 in the morning with temperatures falling quickly following the frontal
passage. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s by the evening
rush hour Wednesday. The latest guidance suggests that temperatures will likely
fall into the upper 20s Wednesday night and rise no higher than the 30s on Thursday.

As the relatively shallow arctic cold air slides southward over the area, several
upper air low pressure disturbances will move across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will produce an overrunning clouds and light precipitation which will
likely persist through Thursday. Freezing/frozen winter precipitation will likely occur
over parts of south central Texas based on the latest guidance.

While we will likely see some breaks in the clouds by Thursday night into Friday, the
cloudy overrunning pattern is likely to kick back in by Friday night into the weekend
with temperatures only slowly warming.

We’ve still got a couple of days to refine the forecast details, but all local interests
across the area should stay in close touch with the latest south central Texas forecast
and weather information from the National Weather Service.

THREAT(S) FOR AUSTIN METRO AND IH35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES:
Low to moderate probability for a wintry precipitation mix (rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow)
Geographic area: IH35 Corridor Counties / Williamson, Travis, Hays
Time Period: 4pm Wednesday through 12 noon Thursday
Ice Accumulation: Possible with potential hazardous driving conditions 7pm Wed-1 pm Thu
Snow Accumulation: Little or none

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Weather system evolution: High to Very High
Precipitation chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into early Thursday
Liquid precipitation (rain) chances:
High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into Thursday
Freezing precipitation (freezing rain/freezing drizzle) chances: Moderate
Frozen precipitation (snow/ice pellets-sleet) chances: Moderate
Thunderstorm/lightning chances: Moderate to high Wednesday to 12 noon
Severe thunderstorm chances: None 

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions, please let me know at tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION LINKS:

NWS/Austin-San Antonio Current Statements/Advisory/Watches/Warnings
NWS/Austin-San Antonio Web Page
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Outlooks)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Severe Weather & Snow)
NWS/Storm Prediction Center (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches)
NWS/Weather Prediction Center (Mesoscale Discussions – Heavy Rain & Flooding)
NWS/National Hurricane Center

tk

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