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March 2, 2015

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast (1045am Mon/02Mar2015)

by troyk | on Mar 02, 2015 | Comments Off

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast (915am Mon/02Mar2015)

by troyk | on Mar 02, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 02 March 2015

TODAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably chilly with a few sprinkles and periods of light drizzle. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts to a few hundredths of an inch at any given location. High 48. North northeasterly winds 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with a few sprinkles and periods of light drizzle. Patchy fog. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts to a few hundredths of an inch at any given location. Low 44. Light northeasterly wind becoming light south southeasterly after midnight.

TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy and much warmer with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms especially in the mid and late afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 70. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 54. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms as an arctic cold front passes in the mid and late morning hours. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Turning windy and much colder with highs in the 50s to near 60 in the morning with temperatures falling into the 30s in the afternoon and into the low to mid 30s by the evening rush hour. Southerly wind shifting northerly 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts as the front passes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered patches of rain becoming mixed with or turning to freezing rain and sleet by mid and late evening and continuing through the overnight hours resulting in potential hazardous driving conditions. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 50% chance of precipitation at any given location, will average less than 1/4 inch. Ice accumulations of 1/10th inch or less. Low 28. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered patches of sleet and snow before 12 noon.. then decreasing clouds in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of precipitation at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Ice accumulations less than 1/10th of an inch. Little or no snow/sleet accumulation. High 36. North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 26. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 43. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 34. Light east northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy and a little warmer. High 50. Light easterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 39. Light wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 58. Light southeasterly wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 09 March 2015 through Sunday / 15 March 2015…
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 March)………………………………………….. 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (02 March)……………………………………………. 6:31 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (03 March)……………………………………………….. 6:55 am
Sunset Tuesday (03 March)………………………………………………… 6:31 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion (915am Mon/02Mar2015)

by troyk | on Mar 02, 2015 | Comments Off

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 02 March 2015

… Warming Temperatures Over Next Day or So …
… Another Arctic Cold Front Wednesday …
… Another Round of Potentially Wintry Precipitation Wednesday Night into Thursday …

On this Monday morning…. chilly surface high pressure.. centered over the Iowa and Missouri.. extends back south southwestward over Texas. The leading edge cold front extends from northern Alabama and Southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana into the Gulf of Mexico where it turns stationary east of Brownsville and then extends into northeastern Mexico then northwestward into far west Texas east of El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are northerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a deep upper level low pressure area extends southward through California. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.

The surface high pressure area.. centered to our northeast.. has settled south into Texas and is moving eastward on this Monday. As it moves eastward, I expect south southeasterly winds to return (on the backside of the clockwise rotating high pressure area) by tonight into early Tuesday. As it does so, we’ll see a fairly rapid warming trend for Tuesday into Tuesday night although clouds are likely to linger along with a little better chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk looks to be late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before a strong arctic cold front arrives by mid and late morning.

With the passage of the arctic cold front Wednesday morning into midday, there will be a rapid drop in temperatures with morning temperatures in the 50s to near 60 falling quickly into the 30s in the afternoon and into the low and mid 30s by the evening rush hour. An overrunning pattern will persist on top of the advancing shallow layer of arctic air with light precipitation likely Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night with precipitation tapering off a bit during the day Thursday. It is likely, given the latest forecast guidance (and it could change!!), that parts of our south central Texas area could see freezing/frozen wintry precipitation Wednesday night into midday Thursday. All local interests should stay in close touch with the latest weather information from the National Weather Service over the coming day or so.

It appears that the overrunning pattern, with clouds and at least a slim chance of precipitation, will linger late week into next weekend as temperatures slowly warm just as we saw this past weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high today through the remainder of the week and through the upcoming weekend as it regards the basic weather pattern and precipitation occurrence, timing and amounts. I have low to medium confidence of some type of freezing/frozen precipitation late Wednesday through Thursday.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

…. ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT WED INTO THURS ….

by troyk | on Mar 02, 2015 | Comments Off

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
845am CT – Monday / 02 March 2015

…. Another Potential Winter Weather Event Wednesday into Thursday ….

NWS WATCHES / ADVISORIES / WARNINGS:
None at this time

SYNOPTIC/FORECAST REASONING:
After a warmer than average day tomorrow (Tuesday) with highs in the 70s, another
arctic cold front will pass south southeastward through the Austin and south central
Texas area during the mid and late morning hours on Wednesday. On Wednesday,
temperatures will be in the 50s to near 60 in the morning with temperatures falling
quickly following the frontal passage. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the
low to mid 30s by the evening rush hour Wednesday. The latest guidance suggests
that temperatures will likely fall into the upper 20s Wednesday night and rise no
higher than the 30s on Thursday.

As the relatively shallow arctic cold air slides southward over the area, several
upper air low pressure disturbances will move across the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Overrunning clouds and light precipitation will likely persist through
Thursday. Freezing/frozen winter precipitation will likely occur over parts of south
central Texas based on the latest guidance.

The cloudy.. potentially wet.. overrunning pattern is likely to continue into Friday
and into the weekend with temperatures only slowly warming.

We’ve still got a couple of days to refine the forecast details, but all local interests
across the area should stay in close touch with the latest south central Texas forecast
and weather information from the National Weather Service.

THREAT(S) FOR AUSTIN METRO AND IH35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES:
Low to moderate probability for a wintry precipitation mix (rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow)
Geographic area: IH35 Corridor Counties / Williamson, Travis, Hays
Time Period: 4pm Wednesday through 12 noon Thursday

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Weather system evolution: High to Very High
Precipitation chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into Thursday
Liquid precipitation (rain) chances:
High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into Thursday
Freezing precipitation (freezing rain/freezing drizzle) chances: Low to moderate
Frozen precipitation (snow/ice pellets-sleet) chances: Low to moderate
Thunderstorm/lightning chances: Moderate to high Wednesday to 12 noon
Severe thunderstorm chances: None 

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

tk