Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 24 December 2014

…. A Drier Weather Pattern with Sunshine Today into Late Week ….
…. Another Late Week Cold Front with Rain Chances Again by the Weekend ….

On this Wednesday morning…. high pressure is building into Texas from the northwest… it is centered over northern Utah. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are north northwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a deep area of upper level trough.. or line.. of low pressure is centered over the central and northern plains and Mississippi Valley extending south southwestward into Texas and northern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west northwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

As surface high pressure builds into the area and the upper level low pressure area departs the area to the east, a dry and stable early winter weather pattern will return with abundant sunshine tomorrow with plenty of sunshine and a little of a warm up by Christmas Day.

The latest guidance now suggests another passing upper air disturbance with increased clouds and slim overrunning rain chances for late Friday night through Saturday and into early Sunday. At the same time, another surface cold front will sweep southeastward through the area by daybreak Saturday. Surface high pressure will build into the area in the wake of the front. Once the upper air disturbance passes, the overrunning pattern will end and we’ll return back to more sunshine for the first part of next week.

Although a low confidence event at this time, an arctic cold front will likely move through the area by next Monday night into Tuesday morning with much colder temperatures following along with a potential overrunning cloud and precipitation pattern developing closer to New Years Day.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high through tomorrow and Friday with my confidence falling back to medium for Saturday.. Saturday night and Sunday (rain chances, timing and amounts being the issues). Beyond that for Monday into Tuesday of next week, my forecast guidance is back to high. Beyond that, as it regards a potential arctic outbreak and precipitation chances in Texas, my confidence is low.

I will be taking off Thursday / 25 December through Thursday / 1 January 2015.. and will return to updating my website on Friday / 2 January 2015. I will be posting a link to the latest NWS forecast for Austin and south central Texas during my absence.

Have a good Wednesday and a Merry Christmas….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel