Daily Archives
December 17, 2014

TK’s Special Briefing….

by troyk | on Dec 17, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 300pm CT – Wednesday / 17 December 2014

Sad news up IH35 at KCEN-TV in Waco/Temple…

UPDATE: Arrest Made In Shooting Of Waco-Temple TV Meteorologist

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by troyk | on Dec 17, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 17 December 2014

TODAY…. A cloudy sky with patches of light rain and rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 53. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. A cloudy sky with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Patchy fog developing. Low 50. Light east wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 64. Light east northeasterly wind.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 52. Light easterly wind.

FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms through midday with decreasing clouds and rain chances in the afternoon as a cold front passes. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 61. Light east southeasterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 40. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 57. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s in outlying and low lying areas to near 41 in the city. Light east northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. High 58. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with isolated patches of rain developing. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 44. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. High 60. Light east northeasterly wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 43. Light wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 64. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 24 December 2014 through Tuesday / 30 December 2014…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 December)…………………………………………… 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (17 December)……………………………………………. 5:33 pm
Sunrise Thursday (18 December)………………………………………………. 7:22 am
Sunset Thursday (18 December)……………………………………………….. 5:34 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Dec 17, 2014 | Comments Off

Updated 800am CT – Wednesday / 17 December 2014

…. Storm System Approaching with Increased Rain and Thunderstorm Chances ….
…. Drier Weather for the Weekend ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front extends southeastward from a low pressure area over the eastern Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River valley into the Atlantic Ocean then southwestward across central Florida where it changes into a stationary front through the central Gulf of Mexico and into northern Mexico well south of Brownsville. High pressure.. behind the front.. is over the northern Mississippi Valley southward into Louisiana and Mississippi. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are easterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level low pressure area is located over the southeastern Great Lakes. Another strong low pressure disturbance is over southern California with a trough.. or line.. of upper air low pressure extending south southeastward into Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are west southwesterly 35 to 45 mph.

Clouds and rain chances have returned as another upper level low pressure storm system approaches the area through the end of the week. As the system moves overhead, we’ll see a better chance of rain.. rain showers and thunderstorms over the coming days. As the system departs on Friday, another surface cold front will move through with a high pressure area once again building in with drier and more stable air with abundant sunshine by the weekend.

Longer range guidance has become less bullish regarding the next upper air low pressure storm system for early next week. As a result, we’ll see clouds and rain chances return by Monday with partial clearing due by Tuesday. This guidance still suggests some potential for colder air to arrive in the area after Christmas Day.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through Friday with rainfall timing and amounts being the question. My forecast confidence rises back to very high for Friday night through next weekend. For Monday and beyond next week, my forecast confidence is very low.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel