Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 17 July 2014

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 92. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with winds strong, gusty and variable around thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 inch. Low 73. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 90. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch. Low 73. Light south southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 95. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds early.. then low clouds developing after 12 midnight. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 96. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds early.. then low clouds developing after 12 midnight. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 97. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds early.. then low clouds developing after 12 midnight. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY….. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 98. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds early.. then low clouds developing after 12 midnight. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 98. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 24 July 2014 through Wednesday / 30 July 2014…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 July)……………………………………… 6:41 am
Sunset this evening (17 July)………………………………………. 8:33 pm
Sunrise Friday (18 July)……………………………………………… 6:41 am
Sunset Friday (18 July)………………………………………………. 8:33 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 17 July 2014

…. An Unstable Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. The Stationary Front Has Shifted Back Northeast of the Area ….
…. Good Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Through Tomorrow ….

On this Thursday morning…. the weakening stationary front extends northwestward from the southwestern coastal parishes of Louisiana into north central Texas around the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex then westward into New Mexico. High pressure.. north of the front.. is over Illinois. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an area of upper level high pressure continues over the western USA with a deep and unseasonably strong upper level low pressure trough (or line) extending from southeast of Hudson Bay southward through the Mississippi Valley and covering the eastern half of the USA. Within the broad counterclockwise circulation, a strong disturbance is moving south southeastward through the central plains states. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are westerly at 15 to 25 mph.

The upper level high pressure area continues far to our west and northwest as the unseasonably strong trough, or line, of upper air low pressure – and its counterclockwise circulation – continues in place over the eastern half of the country. The stationary front has weakened and has shifted back well to the north and east of the Austin area. This weakening front as well as west northwesterly wind aloft in combination with plentiful low level moisture and a more unstable air mass being available, scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across our area into tomorrow and even early tomorrow night. Through the period, National Weather Service guidance suggests we could see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain over our area with isolated totals to over 2 inches.

Temperatures, with more clouds and the chance of rain, will be closer to seasonal averages over the next few days.

A more stable weather pattern returns.. with sunshine and warmer temperatures.. for the weekend into next week.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high over the balance of the week (rainfall timing and amounts still being the issues) then very high Saturday into early next week.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel