Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 4 September 2013
…. Very Slim Thunderstorm Chances Linger for Afternoon into Evening Hours ….
…. An Otherwise Dry Late Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….
On this Wednesday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as well as the western Atlantic Ocean. A weakening cold front extends southwestward from Georgia into Alabama and Mississippi and then westward as a stationary front into eastern and central Texas. Another high pressure area is to our distant west over the southwestern Colorado and the four corners region. A low pressure area is over western Kansas with a trough.. or line.. of low pressure extending southward into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area has settled back westward into Colorado. Being just on the southeast side of the upper air high, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are easterly 10 to 18 mph.
Lingering atmospheric moisture and a weak disturbance aloft today will combine with daytime heating for isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days.. primarily in the afternoon into evening hours.
Other than the slim precipitation chances, I expect that the upper level high pressure area will continue to dominate our weather with a fair amount of sunshine over the coming days with continued above average temperatures.
By the weekend into next week, a more moist and unstable air mass will take hold with temperatures falling to more average levels. We’ll also need to watch for increasing rain chances, as well, by late in the weekend into early next week.
According to meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there are three systems over the Atlantic Ocean basin.. including a disturbance over the Yucatan Peninsula. At this point, probabilities are relatively low for short term development for the system over the Yucatan with higher prospects for a system southeast of Puerto Rico.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence over the next several days then falling to medium to high confidence for the weekend into next week as potentially more moist and unstable air takes hold locally.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel