Daily Archives
September 17, 2013

TK’s Audio Weather Webcast….

by troyk | on Sep 17, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 945am CT – Tuesday / 17 September 2013

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

by troyk | on Sep 17, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CDT.. Tuesday / 17 September 2013

TODAY….  Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of  rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 89 to 93. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 70 to 74. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less.  High 90 to 94. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 70 to 74. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 90 to 94. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 71 to 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch.  High 89 to 93. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 60% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 71 to 75. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms before 12 noon as a weak cold front passes southeastward through the area.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 88 to 92. Southerly wind shifting northeasterly 5 to 12 mph as the morning cold front passes.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67 to 71. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 87 to 91. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67 to 71. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 87 to 91. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 24 September 2013  through Monday / 30 September 2013…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 September)………………………….. 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (17 September)……………………………. 7:33 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (18 September)…………………………… 7:17 am
Sunset Wednesday (18 September)……………………………. 7:32 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by troyk | on Sep 17, 2013 | Comments Off

Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 17 September 2013

…. Slim Thunderstorm Chances Continue Over the Next Few Days ….
…. Weak Cold Front to Move Into Texas with Better Rain Chances Friday ….
…. Watching the Southern Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Development ….

On this Tuesday morning…. a weak cold front extends westward from southern Georgia into southern Louisiana then turns stationary and extends back northwestward into north central Texas and then back into eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are easterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an upper level high pressure area extends from east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Being on the west side of the upper air high, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southerly 10 to 20 mph.

Abundant atmospheric moisture will continue over the coming days and combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability to produce at least widely scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development. A partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky will prevail locally.

By later in the week, a cold front will move southward into northwest Texas and this front, unlike a couple of the these fronts we’ve seen lately, will have enough upper air support, through a passing upper level low pressure area, to bring the front through the local area around or just after sunrise on Saturday. Ahead of and along the front, increased rain showers and thunderstorm chances will affect the area Friday into early Saturday. Latest guidance suggests upward of 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain may fall over our area with this storm system and cold front.

I think we’ll see a more stable weather pattern in the wake of the front later in the day Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday. Based on current guidance, I expect a partly cloudy sky with northeasterly surface winds and temperatures down only a few degrees.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven day forecast period.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel