Updated 845am CDT Tuesday / 10 September 2013

…. Afternoon Thunderstorm Chances Linger Through Tomorrow ….
…. An Otherwise Typical Late Summer Weather Pattern Continues ….

On this Tuesday morning…. surface high pressure continues over the southeastern USA with another high pressure area is to our distant west northwest over the Great Salt Lake basin. A trough.. or line.. low pressure area extends from south southeastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly over our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a strong upper level high pressure area has settled southward a bit into the Arkansas/Tennessee and northern Mississippi region. Being on the south southwest side of the upper air high, winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are southeasterly 10 to 20 mph.

Atmospheric moisture will combine with daytime heating and atmospheric instability this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon for widely scattered to scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds may accompany the thunderstorms that do develop.

By the end of the week through next weekend, I expect that the upper level high pressure area will build back into our area with increased sunshine and rain chances dropping from the forecast. Temperatures will continue to be at or above average.

By early next week, a slightly more unstable air mass will develop and I will introduce a very slim rain chance.

According to meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center, there is a fairly high chance that a tropical depression will develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. I think anything that does ultimately develop will be steered more westward toward Mexico than northwestward toward Texas; nevertheless, we need to monitor this potential closely.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High to very high forecast confidence through Thursday.. then a high confidence Friday through early next week with the possibility of low pressure development in the Gulf adding some uncertainty.

Have a good Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel