Updated 130pm CDT.. Wednesday / 9 May 2012
TODAY…. Partly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 77 to 81. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph. Additional rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. then turning mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms mainly after midnight. Low 61 to 65. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch or less.
THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning.. increasing to 50% by afternoon. High 76 to 80. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southeasterly late in the day. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a 80% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Brief heavy rainfall possible. Low 62 to 66. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph. Additional rainfall will average 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches.
FRIDAY…. Cloudy with a 70% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Brief heavy rainfall possible. High 73 to 77.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a 60% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms before midnight.. decreasing to 50% after midnight. Low 61 to 65.
SATURDAY…. A 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms before noon.. then becoming partly cloudy. High 77 to 81.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 61 to 65.
SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy as a cold front passes in the early and mid morning hours. Breezy and less humid in the afternoon. High 78 to 82.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59 to 63.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80 to 84.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59 to 63.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 81 to 85.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 16 May 2012 through Tuesday / 22 May 2012…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (9 May)…………… 6:41 am
Sunset this evening (9 May)…………….. 8:14 pm
Sunrise Wednesday (10 May)………….. 6:40 am
Sunset Wednesday (10 May)…………… 8:15 pm
….AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT….
…RECORDED TUESDAY / 1 MAY 2012…
(Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and is
courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and Dr. T. Ray Vaughn
and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer)
Molds….. 2280 gr/cubic meter (High) – Down Since Last Reading
Grasses….. 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Weeds…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Weeds:
…None Reported …
Trees…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Trees:
Updated 130pm CDT Wednesday / 9 May 2012
…. A Break in the Weather Gives Way to Clouds and Rain Chances Late Week ….
…. Low Pressure Disturbance to Pass Overhead Tomorrow into Early Saturday ….
…. Additional Beneficial Rainfall Upwards of 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 Inches ….
On this Wednesday… a weakening cold front extends from southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico to south of Brownsville and into Mexico then northwestward to southwest of the Texas Big Bend. A surface high pressure area.. centered over the Texas panhandle.. is building in behind the front. As a result, a north northeasterly surface wind is blowing across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an upper level trough is located over the southwestern USA with an upper level low pressure area.. embedded within the trough.. over northwestern Mexico. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are moderate west southwesterly over Texas.
With the shallow wedge of cooler air in place across the area, we’ve seen a break in the weather pattern today with some sunshine across the area.
By later tonight and tomorrow and then into late Friday and early Saturday, the strong upper air low pressure disturbance over northwestern Mexico will move slowly east northeastward from northern Mexico and across Texas. With its slow movement, several waves of rain showers and thunderstorms are likely with precipitation tapering off by Saturday morning. Brief heavy rain is possible.. upwards to 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 inches.. as the upper air disturbance weakens and moves east northeast of our area. I don’t believe that we’ll see anything other than some localized flooding (urban, small creek and stream as well as low water crossings) with this event. Our soils are more than able to handle this amount of beneficial rainfall. Although I’ll need to continue to monitor this, the current NWS/Storm Prediction Center outlooks suggests that any severe weather threat with this system is expected to remain well south of our area.
After this upper air system weakens and departs to the northeast of the area.. upper level winds are forecast to shift more northwesterly which will support a cold front passing southeastward through the area by early and mid morning Sunday. A dry and more stable weather pattern will prevail for late in the weekend into early next week with daytime temperatures warming back to slightly below to near seasonal levels.
My forecast confidence is medium to high this week (timing of precipitation is always an issue along with exact rainfall amounts) and then high to very high confidence once the system passes on Saturday and continuing through early next week.
For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will see a mostly cloudy sky with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the 60s. Northeasterly wind. For tomorrow, becoming mostly cloudy with a rain showers and thunderstorm chances increasing by afternoon. Highs in the 70s to around 80 with an easterly wind.
Have a good Wednesday night and Thursday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel